Evidence

Who has confirmed what

The screen behind the claim, with the definitions stated before the numbers — because the difference between announced and confirmed capacity is the entire finding, and conflating them would make the table meaningless.

EIA-860M · verified 2 November 2026

Definitions

Three words that are not synonyms

Term	Means	Source
Announced	Capacity a developer has entered against a project	Developer disclosure
Confirmed	Capacity carried in the federal generator register	EIA-860M
Firm	Confirmed capacity attached to a specific operating unit	EIA-860M, unit level

Zero confirmed capacity is not evidence of distress. Registration lags development, and an early-stage project legitimately shows nothing in the register. What the screen measures is the asymmetry between two populations — never the financial position of any single developer, about which it says nothing at all.

The screen

372 developers, split by technology

Developer type	Count	Announced MW	Confirmed MW	Rate
Thermal / nuclear, confirmed	16	30,473	30,473	100%
Thermal / nuclear, none	2	2,600	0	0%
Renewable / storage, confirmed	2	2,597	1,574	61%
Renewable / storage, none	352	160,385	0	0%
All developers	372	196,055	32,047	16.3%

Across the whole renewable and storage population the confirmation rate is 1.0 per cent. Across thermal and nuclear it is 92.1 per cent. Only two renewable developers in the entire screen carry confirmed capacity — Copia Power, whose confirmed megawatts include natural gas, and Invenergy.

Counterparties

Where the confirmed capacity sits

Each project vehicle resolved to the sponsor behind it, because the entity on the register is rarely the entity that can transact.

Project vehicle	State	Confirmed MW	Sponsor	Type
Fermi America	TX	11,679	Fermi Inc.	listed
Fermi Nuclear	TX	4,468	Fermi Inc.	listed
Homer City Generation	PA	4,396	Knighthead Capital Management	private
CPV Basin Ranch	TX	1,445	Competitive Power Ventures	private
SL Energy Power Plant I	TX	1,290	unresolved	—
Invenergy Services	IN / WI	1,288	Invenergy	private
Lincoln Land Energy Center	IL	1,277	EmberClear	private
Copia Power	AZ	1,250	Copia Power	private
Permian Power I	TX	880	Vistra Corp	listed
Cedar Bayou 5	TX	721	NRG Energy	listed
US SFR Owner	WY	500	TerraPower	private

Listed parents are separated from private sponsors because they raise differently. Fermi Inc., Vistra and NRG together account for 18,195 MW of the confirmed total and access the public markets. Six private sponsors hold the remaining 10,156 MW. Two vehicles remain unresolved and are marked as such rather than guessed at.

Underneath

The supply layer

Capacity requires equipment and construction, and the federal award record names who is delivering it.

46,434federal power and grid awards

4,231distinct named recipients

$12.1bnobligated against them

11,434generators joined asset → owner → holder

The full documents →